Another round of climate talks comes to an end. Is the world any closer to halting the climate crisis?
Once again, the United Nations Conference of Party climate talks — COP29, this year held in Baku, the petro-state of Azerbaijan — are over, sort of.
As usual, it had all the hallmarks of a global attempt to collectively grapple with a giant, existential threat to all life on earth, including representatives from 190+ nations, 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists, tens of thousands of civil society attendees all desperately trying to push for real commitments. No, they did not finish on time. Yes, Saudi Arabia played a blatant and hugely dangerous obstructionist role — The New York Times said this year’s dirty dealings were “unlike anything” envoys have seen before — to ensure the meeting failed. No, COP parties did not come anywhere near reaching the all-important financial commitments that were the whole point of the meeting.
So what else is new? In recent years, the UN Climate Conference has become more theater than substance — but important theater nonetheless. As usual, the last act unfolded into the wee hours of the night as weary delegates sought to hammer out an agreement as they eyed the clock and departure times of their flights home.
The Associated Press team has sleeping bags
As one veteran attendee reported, it was a “3:00 AM huddle in a windowless, airless room with bright lights and proposals on the future of Planet Earth to focus the mind. ‘How did we end up back in this hole,’ mused one official. The buses to the venue stop at 2200. The Associated Press team has sleeping bags.”
Here are the key COP29 takeaways — read mostly failures — from those who gave up their sleep to track the details:
The big fail: COP29 results. Is this all there is? The primary outcome of every COP is the ending statement of commitment. At COP29, running well over schedule, that statement will be disappointing. The final agreement was far less than what is needed, and, as our colleague on the ground in Azerbaijan Hunter Lovins, wrote, it is heartbreaking. Global climate activist Greta Thunberg called it a “death sentence” in a Tweet.
COP finance agreement: $300 billion. Global spend on weapons in 2023: $2.44 trillion
Key to this “finance COP” was for the Global North to boost its financial pledge to the Global South. Developing nations were pushing for $1.3 trillion a year. Before the final hours of COP29, there was actually a push (see chart below) to try to reach an agreement for a funding “staircase” — alas, they agreed on barely getting to the first floor, which was a pledge of $300 billion. It’s a pittance. Remember that in 2023, the world spent $2.44 trillion on weapons. We’re clearly more interested in destruction and investment in our survival.
Depending on whether and how the UN works out a plan for additional negotiating to increase it, the final amount will determine whether the Global South has the resources to adapt, recover, and participate in the decarbonizing global economy. This will mean most will need more resources to make the clean energy transition required by all if we are to keep the planet to a liveable temperature. “It feels that the developed world wants the planet to burn,” said Panama’s climate envoy. The Africa Group of Nations called it ” totally unacceptable and inadequate.”
Fail two: “Grants and grant-equivalent” funding was dropped altogether, ensuring support for developing countries would be given outright rather than as loans. One focused on ensuring the funds were grants or grant-equivalent in form and that contributions from developing countries to each other — a nod to large potential donors such as China — were not formally part of the target.
Fail three: Continuous adaptation: COP29 pledges for the Adaptation Fund came to less than one-third of its $300 million target. Adaptation experts from Africa and the Global South also continued to contest the text on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and the draft text of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), describing them as insufficient and underwhelming for lacking clear targets on adaptation and loss and damage and for including “extreme proposals” that go against the Paris Agreement.
Borat of climate? Source: MSN
Fail four: COP presidency. Attendees largely agreed that Azerbaijan President Mukhtar Babayev either had no idea what he was doing or did know but preferred the perception of chaos to any tangible outcomes. In addition, with the detention of a London School of Economic climate professor, whose research focuses on Azerbaijan’s oil and gas sectors, it has been a bad look all-around.
Fail five: No new host: Australia and its Pacific neighbor nations have already told the world they are hosting COP31, but Türkiye is not giving up so fast. The Middle Eastern country is trying to negotiate redress before agreeing to give up its bid. Australia is locked in a standoff with Türkiye, fighting to return the climate talks to the Middle East — an all-around calamity in the last two of three COPS.
Fail six: Biodiversity whaaaaa? Even as diplomats tout their efforts to merge the now separate climate and biodiversity COPs together, in reality, every mention of biodiversity was deleted from nearly every COP29 text. Brazil expressed disappointment on the final night, with its Minister Marina Silva saying: “Society is doing its part, and science is doing its part. The ones who need to step up are the governments and companies.”
So what is the impact of all these fails?
Consequences? What consequences? If countries break the newly adopted UN carbon market rules when trading emissions with one another, the consequences, according to new texts, are less than a slap on the wrist. According to experts at Carbon Market Watch, it’s a “disappointing set of rules for a disappointingly open framework.” Bottom line: The rules offer no accountability and limited transparency.
China taking center stage: On November 12, envoy Ding Xuexiang (who led China’s delegation of 1,000!) said that since 2016, China had delivered an unbelievable $24.5 billion in climate finance along with G20 announcements to support the Global South in its energy transition. Does anyone doubt that after Donald Trump’s re-election, China is poised to fill a likely US climate action vacuum and continue its global dominance? In the process, however, the Global South will likely go even deeper into debt to China.
New leaders: Mexico announced plans for a net-zero economy by 2050 in line with the EU, Canada, and other countries that have done much better by pledging to set 2035 targets to achieve steep emissions reductions.
A+ for effort: Indonesia announced a commitment to retiring all coal-fired power plants in the next 15 years, less than half the original timeline.
Climate genocide: 30 million. This is the terrifying number of people who could die due to climate change and air pollution by 2100, according to researchers at the Max Planck Institute of Chemistry.
The great unknown: Trump. Will he or won’t he pull the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement? Everyone, including Saudi Arabia, Israel, Russia, and Exson, thinks it is a dumb idea, which means he will probably do it.
Worst host nation ever: Azerbaijan. Given its president’s obnoxious behavior and the scale of COP29’s failures, Baku can be ranked as the worst host in the history of UN climate talks. Perhaps it’s a designation the country is celebrating, given its billions in income from oil and gas exports — $33.6 billion in 2022, with plans to expand its gas exports by one-third in the next decade. Fox in the climate hen house? An understatement.
Worst COP delegation ever: Saudi Arabia was so determined to remove language agreed last year on a fossil fuel transition that The Guardian accused a Saudi delegate of hacking into the negotiating text and directly making changes to an official copy. The rest of the Saudi delegation worked throughout the conference to undermine efforts to renew last year’s historic pledge to transition away from fossil fuels.
Up next: Brazil. Already confirmed to host COP30, Brazil is already reaching out to nations worldwide, particularly those with indigenous citizens and climate-threatening deforestation challenges, in preparing for the next round.
As we head into Thanksgiving week in the US, it’s fair to say there isn’t much to be thankful for out of COP29 other than it’s over (ish). The Climate & Capital Media team is trying to pull together a few things we can think of to celebrate so that you don’t spiral into an alcoholic depression upon reading this while extreme weather events continue to pummel the planet. For that… Stay tuned.
Featured image source: European Committee of the Regions
