Beyond the Scandal – the real work of COP
Editor’s Note: Our correspondent, Hunter Lovins, will offer insights from Baku as COP29 unfolds. This is her first report.
“What would a UN Climate conference be without a scandal?” That was the first line of the piece I wrote last June about the prep conference in Bonn. We were in Germany to prepare for the UNFCCC’s annual exercise in frustration, the 29thConference of Parties (COP), which started Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Last summer’s scandal was the revelation that the president of the prior COP in Dubai used his influence to negotiate $100 billion in oil and gas deals, five times greater than the deals his company chased the prior year. Hosting COP was great for UAE fossil futures.
Business as usual
Once again, scandal’s in the air. Azerbaijan, the host nation of the UN conference supposed to solve the climate crisis, is inking deals to extract even more fossil fuels. The chief executive of Azerbaijan’s COP team is on the board of Socar, the national oil and gas company, core to the host nation’s economy: delivering roughly half its GDP and 90% of its export earnings.
This time Global Witness and the BBC went hunting early. Posing as Hong Kong energy investors, they filmed the willingness of Elnur Soltanov, the man running this week’s COP, to cut deals. Emails of the negotiations detailed Soltanov’s eagerness to introduce the fake company to Socar, on whose Board he sits, to discuss “sustainable oil and gas investing” during COP29. When the “investors” expressed interest in sponsoring COP, Soltanov asked for $600,000, saying this would earn them five of the prized badges to enter the Blue Zone where the COP negotiations are held.
Am I surprised? Nope. Annoyed? Quite.
- Not a week ago, the UNFCCC sent a nastygram to NGO’s like mine warning that anyone caught selling badges would be banned from COP. Soltanov sold COP tickets and, arguably, its principles and goals without so much as a slap on the wrist. Officials from UNFCCC and the host nation have declined to comment. Christiana Figueres, who so masterfully stewarded the Paris Accords at COP 21 did, however, calling Soltanov’s behavior “contrary and egregious” to the purpose of COP and “a treason.” Will UNFCCC ban Soltanov from his own COP? Don’t hold your breath.
Will UNFCCC ban Soltanov from his own COP?
The reality is that the nations of the world are failing woefully to live up even to the 2016 Paris Agreement. This will be the year we pass the dreaded 1.5 degree C increase in global warming that the Paris agreement sought to stay below. Worse, the promises from governments on what action they propose to take leave the world on track for three degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels.
Floods, fires, drought and hurricanes
The climate disasters now spiraling out of control – floods in Spain and China, fires in California and New Jersey, simultaneous floods and droughts in Africa, and the destruction of cities hundreds of miles inland by hurricanes – are all happening while we’re still below 1.5. Every tenth of a degree increase will bring exponentially worse disasters. The impacts scale logarithmically.
So what am I doing in Baku? Why join the horde of COP tourists? What the hell can we do here? What can you do where you are?
The real outcomes of COPs have almost never been the official “agreements.” Such meetings are the only real outcome of the COPs – spoiler alert – there will be NO negotiated agreement. Great declarations will be made. The real work is done in dialogues over the two weeks with scientists, climate entrepreneurs, business people and activists working together to implement non-negotiated solutions. At a pavilion, we facilitate some of these talks.
Renewables are everywhere and cheaper
You can join us in implementing the real solutions that already exist. The continuing good news: these are cheaper than continuing to burn Azerbaijan’s gas. Renewables are everywhere cheaper than fossil energy and getting more so. Regenerative agriculture can remove roughly 20 gigatons of carbon every year from the atmosphere and durably sequester it in healthy soil, where it becomes a nutrient. The net annual emissions (after counting the carbon already absorbed by the natural sinks of the ocean, grasslands and forests) is roughly 4 gigatons. A serious commitment to regenerative grazing and agriculture can roll climate change backwards at a profit.
Every tenth of a degree increase will bring exponentially worse disasters. The impacts scale logarithmically.
In Baku, Natural Capitalism Solutions will team with NOW Partners, Food Tank, EIT Food, the Future Economy Forum, SEKEM, Imaflora, Soil for Climate, and ProVeg International to host side events and dialogues with youth delegates, negotiators, government representatives, business leaders and many others.
Our side event, co-hosted by Soil for Climate, wrestled with how to ensure integrity in voluntary carbon markets. We described how regenerative grazing is addressing the climate crisis, and outlined pragmatic initiatives underway to promote regenerative agricultural practices.
Right now I am on a bus heading back to the Blue Zone and our pavilion. Stand by, I’ll be reporting every day or so with the good news of the real climate action happening now on the ground — in countries around the world.
