Has China snapped a 250-year surge in carbon emissions?
The following letter reflects the work and views of the Climate & Capital Media team from a week of heated editorial discussion.
The last time the earth’s atmosphere was this hot, there were hippos in the Thames. Some 115,000–130,000 years ago, in the Eemian Era, sea levels were five meters higher than today, woolly mammoth populations were on the wane, and hippopotamuses were floating about where London stands today.
The big difference is that this time, rather than non-human factors—maybe a glitch in the earth’s orbit — humans burning fossil fuels are driving global warming.
This surge of atmospheric heat puts us all in uncharted territory. Will we superheat ourselves into extinction? Or, like our prehistoric ancestors, will we find opportunity in all this global warming stuff and supercharge ourselves into the future as they did in the Eemian Era?
Your guess is as good as the most eminent scientist because such a man-made natural phenomenon has never happened before at this scale. But we know two things for sure: The more carbon we burn, the hotter the earth gets. Burn less, and the carbon fever breaks.
Eminent climate scientist Michael E. Mann thinks it’s a good bet. Civilization is not necessarily on a path to destruction because we have breached the key 1.5C (actually 1.6C) degree as we have for 12 straight months. Many climate models predict that human-induced warming stops when we stop emitting carbon. And some very intriguing new data from China may prove him right.
Are today’s record temperatures a leading or lagging indicator of the pace of global warming?
This raises an intriguing question: Are today’s record temperatures a leading or lagging indicator of the pace of global warming? We will soon find out.
Surging renewable energy
The International Energy Agency reports that global investment in renewable technology outstripped that in fossil fuels in 2023 for the first time. In Europe, renewable energy delivered more than 50% of the region’s power. In Australia, it is 40% and is rising fast. In America, according to Scientific America, the amount of energy produced last year by solar power was 130% more than five years ago and enough to power almost 14 million homes. In Germany, coal production dropped to a record low, while renewables now provide 65% of its power needs.
However, China is the biggest mover and shaker in carbon reduction. In recent months, something truly extraordinary has occurred, reports Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder and lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The world’s economy is growing, he says. China’s economy is growing. Yet greenhouse gas emissions appear to have peaked in the past year. Driving the charge is China’s massive deployment of wind and solar energy and growth in EVs, he says.
If true, and against all odds, the solutions to reverse climate change may have snapped the 250-year nexis of economic progress and fossil fuels.
Democracy and clean energy
As the use of renewable power surges, another big surprise has also emerged. This one is political. Defying predictions, conservatives, and fossil fuel lovers are losing democratic elections. Pro-climate progressive democracies in the United Kingdom, France, and Mexico have joined Australia and Brazil, where pro-climate planks helped defeat right-wing opponents.
If true, and against all odds, the solutions to reverse climate change may have snapped the 250-year nexis of economic progress and fossil fuels.
Around the world, every liberal democratic regime is moving towards a clean energy future, while every authoritarian regime, from Russia to Iran to Saudi Arabia, is hanging on to fossil fuels. The one huge exception is China.
Dark clouds of autocracy
However, all this fair weather climate and political news may be a temporary blip of optimism as a vast black thunderstorm cloud looms on the horizon: the November presidential election in the United States between convicted sex offender and financial felon Donald Trump and the increasingly frail but climate-friendly Joe Biden. While Biden’s failing mental abilities fuel panic among Democrats, Trump is accepting millions of dollars of oil money and their direction on how to shape his environmental agenda for a second term, including rollbacks of Biden’s signature achievements on clean energy and electric vehicles.
So to say the stakes in the next four months are high is an understatement. How America votes in November will be a key indicator of our future.
Let us hope most casting ballots choose wisely unless you prefer hippos on the Thames.
Featured photo source: The Trustees of The Natural History Museum, London
